Issue support scores – indicating how likely a person is to support a given issue, such as immigration reform or abortion access – have now been a mainstay of the progressive data ecosystem for decades. However, scores telling us whether voters actually care about a given issue – to the extent that it might lead them to change their vote – have not been available… until now!
We built a set of 12 models that describe (1) the probability a voter will support a candidate with a particular position on an issue, and (2) the degree to which a candidate’s position on that issue might be determinative in who the voter will support. We’re really excited about these.
How did we build them?
To build these models, we designed a conjoint survey that asked voters to make tough choices between hypothetical candidates with different stances on these key issues. By analyzing how voters made trade-offs, we were able to create models that predict both a voter’s position on an issue and the importance they place on it relative to other issues. This approach allowed us to capture the complexity of voter decisions in a way that traditional issue scores often miss.
Why does this matter?
Understanding both what a voter thinks about a given issue and how much it actually matters to them is the key to crafting messages that resonate.
Imagine finding Republicans in a district who support abortion rights and care enough about protecting them that they’d be willing to vote for a Democrat. Or targeting defensive messaging on issues that may not be good for your campaign only to voters who actually care about those issues (so you don’t accidentally make a difficult issue more salient in the process of rebutting attacks).
These scores offer campaigns a smarter, more strategic way to engage voters, ensuring that every message hits where it counts. Curious about how we built these models and how you can use them to win? Dive into our full documentation to get the details!
Sign up to chat with our team about getting these scores now!